Fasten Your Seatbelts – We are going to take-off.
Technology will accelerate the rate of change. Many people get baffled by the dizzying rate of innovation and technology changes. This article introduces two models to understand technology changes and social impact.
First model DTAC provides an effective way to comprehend technology revolution and also project future technology changes. The second model, TOST explains social & business impact.
Let us first understand the DTAC model. Imagine that technology change is like a four storied building. Each floor is built on the foundation of the lower floors.
Level-1: Fundamental Driving Forces :
At the base of the building, 1st Floor is the Fundamental Driving Forces (FDF) that fuels all technological changes. We will call it Drivers.
There are 3 Drivers currently shaping the technological revolution :
1) Internet Bandwidth
2) Computer Processing Power
3) Storage and Computer Memory
Whenever paradigm shattering new breakthroughs are achieved in bandwidth, processing power or memory, it is denoted as Next Generation Technology. Between 2020 to 2035, we will see widespread propagation of 5G Mobile Internet technology with data speed ranging from 300 Mbps to 1000 Mbps.
After 5G, companies and researchers have already started planning the development and deployment of 6G Internet. 6G may have Internet speed 100 times faster than 5G.
Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, Intel and other chip manufacturing companies launch new generations of faster computer and mobile processors every year. Today’s computer processor are millions of times faster than computer processor that were used 20 years ago.
Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, Toshiba are leading the data-storage revolution. As of 2020, one can get 16000 GB or 16 Terabyte of storage for a few hundred dollars.
Level-2: Key Technical Fields (KTF) :
These fundamental driving forces will give rise to new technical areas. 2nd story is the Key Technical Fields (KTF) that emerge or get shaped by the driving forces. Based on the revolution in the launch of a new generation of protocols and products related to bandwidth, processing power and storage, several new technical areas of practice interest will emerge.
In the current age, Key Technical Fields are:
1) Artificial Intelligence (AI)
2) Internet of Things (IoT)
3) Virtual Reality/ Augmented Reality (VR/AR)
Level-3: Revolutionary Practical Applications (RPA) :
At first, these technical fields are limited to academic discussions and research papers. Slowly, practical applications and new user case scenarios are discussed by experts. Next level is Practical Applications. 3rd Story is the Revolutionary Practical Applications (RPA) because of the advances in the key technical fields. Hundreds of new practical applications will emerge from the newer technical fields.
Three key practical applications from the year 2020 onwards are likely to be:
1) Driverless Car
2) AI-Consultants, AI-Knowledge Processing
3) Holographic Phones/ Hololens. VR/AR learning & healthcare.